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With the victory of Nikki Haley last night, Sarah Palin endorsement in statewide races officially have a 100% success rate.  Is she a kingmaker (or queenmaker)?  Or is she just skilled at recognizing when outspoken social conservatives or political allies have already sown the seeds of victory?

It is hard to know, but Sarah Palin has certainly not been formulaic in her endorsements.

Sarah Palin backed establishment candidates like Carly Fiorina in California over the more conservative (DeMint endorsed) Chuck DeVore, generating momentum for Carly's come-from-behind victory over liberal Republican Tom Campbell.  She also endorsed Rand Paul, the anti-establishment conservative candidate running against moderate Trey Grayson, lending explosive momentum to Rand Paul's campaign, which had already pulled into the lead.  When John McCain, unquestionably a moderate, asked for her help in Arizona, Sarah Palin endorsed her former running mate (the only time she did not support an outspoken social conservative), which essentially cut off any hope of JD Hayworth generating the kind of conservative grassroots momentum necessary for a come-from-behind victory.  She rallied behind Nikki Haley, which propelled Mrs. Haley to victory as Governor of South Carolina in spite of allegations of adultery.  She also endorsed incumbent Governor Terry Brandstad in Iowa against a more fiscally conservative opponent.

So the question remains, are her instincts superb or is her endorsement game-changing?  We are about to find out.

Sarah Palin has violated one of the hallowed rules of endorsements for politicians -- thou shalt not endorse primary opponents of candidates of thy own party.  Even Barack Obama gave the cold shoulder to organized labor in Pennsylvania and Arkansas rather than break this rule of endorsements.

But Sarah Palin has not only endorsed against an incumbent.  She has endorsed a candidate who had thus far generated no momentum.

Sarah Palin has endorsed Joe Miller for Senate in his upstart challenge to liberal Republican Lisa Murkowski, the only incumbent Republican this election cycle who advocates for abortion rights.  Now, the Tea Party Express, emboldened by its success in helping Sharron Angle get elected in Nevada, has joined her in supporting Mr. Miller.

Joe Miller is about to get a heavy infusion of money into his race.  Much has been made of animosity between the Palins and the Murkowskis, ever since Sarah Palin unseated Lisa Murkowski's father in the Republican primary race for Governor.  But this endorsement will be a real test.

She has also endorsed Clint Didier, an outspoken social conservative who is running an upstart campaign against establishment Republican Dino Rossi.  Mr. Rossi has a history of avoiding the social issues.

Can Sarah Palin overthrow the biggest RINO in the GOP up for reelection this cycle in Alaska?  Can Sarah Palin vault an unknown conservative to victory over a household nae in W

Can Sarah Palin's endorsement create something out of nothing?
 
 
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In 1994, the Republicans captured 8 seats in the Senate, the biggest GOP gain in history.  In order to capture the Senate in 2010, Republicans would need to gain 10 seats.  Although such an enormous gain is still a long shot, the GOP is surprisingly well positioned to make this move.

Competitive Republican Seats -- Democratic Gains in MO / OH / KY / NC: Between 0 - 4 (Prediction: 0 Losses)

Republicans are either tied or running slightly in front of Democrats in all the competitive Republican-held seats -- Missouri (Roy Blunt), Ohio (Rob Portman), Kentucky (Rand Paul), and North Carolina (Richard Burr).  If the Republican candidates can effectively use their significant fundraising advantages in all of these states to fend off feisty Democratic challengers without support from the Republican National Committee, national Republican strategists can focus almost all of their resources on playing offence.  I think that the GOP will bat 100 on all four of these tough races.

3 Way Race -- Democratic or Independent Pickups in FL: Between 0 - 1 (Prediction: 0 Losses)

Billionaire Jeff Greene is wreaking havoc in the Democratic primary, becoming poised to overthrow Kendrick Meek, seize the Democratic ticket, and cast himself as the ultimate non-political outsider, thus out-indepenting Independent Charlie Crist.  Mr. Greene will be able to spend the money necessary to split the liberal and Independent vote with Charlie Crist.  However, with these two running to the left, Marco Rubio will have a golden opportunity to have a decisive win with his conservative message.

Retired Democratic Senators -- Republican Gains in IL / DE / IN / ND: Between 0 - 5 (Prediction: 3 Gains)

Republicans were certainly helped by the retirements of Chris Dodd in Connecticut, Roland Burris in Illinois, Ted Kaufman in Delaware, Evan Bayh in Indiana, and Byron Dorgan in North Dakota.  Republicans have seized advantages in all four states except for Connecticut, where Democrat Richard Blumenthal is expected to roll to victory.  Liberal Republican Mark Kirk, who fails to excite the party base, also looks vulnerable to a last minute campaign blitz by the President, who is still popular in Illinois.

Overthrown Democratic Incumbent -- Republican Gain in PA: Between 0 - 1 (Prediction: 1 Gain)

In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak spent almost all of his resources overthrowing Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary while conservative Republican Pat Toomey has built up a $4,650,000 war chest and used the Sestak job scandal to seize an advantage in early polling.

Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents -- Republican Gains in CA / NY / WI / WA / CO / NV / AR (Prediction: 6 Gains)

Meanwhile, there are 7 incumbent Democratic Senators with impressive war chests whose approval ratings in the danger zone of less than 50% against particular Republican challengers.  Barbara Boxer in California (48%), Kirsten Gillibrand in New York (47%), Russ Feingold in Wisconsin (46%), Patty Murray in Washington (44%), Michael Bennett in Colorado (41%), Harry Reid in Nevada (39%), and Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas (28%).  These well funded Democrats are all unpopular but Russ Feingold and Patty Murray are notoriously good campaigners and the New York Republican Party can only win if Joe DioGuardi, who was snubbed by the Republican delegates, wins the Republican primary by petition.  That being said, the mood is very anti-incumbent and I don't see more than 6 of these Democrats squeezing a victory out of this painful election cycle.

Overall Prediction: Republicans Win 10 Seats and the Senate.
 
 
In 2009, the New York Republican Party endorsed liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava to run for Congress in the special election in the 23rd District of New York to replace Republican Representative John McHugh, who had been selected to serve as Secretary of the Army.  However, the Conservative Party of New York denounced Dede Scozzafava as a pro-tax, pro-gay marriage, and pro-choice liberal.  Several powerful conservative groups got involved -- the Club for Growth, the Susan B. Anthony List, and the National Organization for Marriage.  The Club for Growth ran television ads attacking Dede Scozzafava on fiscal issues.  Susan B. Anthony List and the National Organization for Marriage went on the ground to mobilize social conservatives.

The New York Times did a huge story on the race and turned it into a media feeding frenzy.  When Sarah Palin stepped in and endorsed Doug Hoffman, Dede Scozzafava's campaign began crumbling.  Doug Hoffman exploded towards the finish line with superb fundraising and polling momentum.  Finally, Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat Bill Owens, giving the Democrats the momentum they needed to pick up the Republican-leaning district.

This should live in the minds of the Republican Party of New York as a nightmare that they desperately need to avoid.  Being marginalized and eliminated by the Conservative Party on the right and the Democratic Party on the left should not be anything that the NY GOP wants to go through again.  Unfortunately, it is not clear that they have learned their lesson.  On Thursday, June 3rd, the Republican delegates selected two liberal Republicans, David Malpass and Bruce Blakeman, to run in the primary race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand.  They snubbed conservative Republican Joe DioGuardi.  However, the Conservative Party of New York has endorsed Joe DioGuardio.  Sound familiar?

Joe DioGuardio, however, can still petition his way onto the Republican primary, and he has already put $974,223 of his own money into the race.  If Mr. DioGuardio can win the GOP primary, the right is likely to have a good chance of uniting around his candidacy and unseating vulnerable freshman Senator Kirsten Gillibrand.  If he loses, the right will likely split their votes between the Republican and Conservative tickets, allowing Kirsten Gillibrand to cling to her seat in spite of her shocking approval rating of only 27%.

 
 
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In 1967, Colorado became the first state to legalize abortion in the cases of rape, incest, or threat to the life of the mother.  Colorado Right to Life was founded in 1967 to battle against that legalization.  It out-dates the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade case and the subsequent founding of the National Right to Life Committee by 6 years and is not affiliated with the National Right to Life Committee. 

Colorado Right to Life has adopted a policy of attempting to institute Personhood Amendments throughout the United States. To that end, they have launched the organization Personhood USA, which seeks to manufacture constitutional amendments in the states.

Last year, Colorado Right to Life got a Personhood Amendment on the 2008 ballot.  However, the Republican Senatorial Candidate Bob Schaffer and the Colorado Bishops both opposed the measure as strategically misguided.  The measure was defeated by a 3:1 margin. 


However, the Personhood Amendment is back on the 2010 ballot and is wielding significant mainstream support.  The Bishops have told the Parish pastors this year that the measure's intentions have Bishop support and they left it up to the discretion of the pastors whether to open up church doors to petitions drives.

Even more importantly, all the Republican statewide candidates (Jane Norton and Ken Buck in the Senate race as well as have announced their support for the measure.  Denver based FOCUS on the Family is also expected to put its significant resources into play.  With sudden and unexpected mainstream support, the measure may have an outside chance of muscling through this year.

In a year where states rights have come to dominate the political dialog -- from health care exemptions to traditional marriage, Personhood may have a chance of earning a place in the states rights conservative debate.
 
 
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GOP California Senate Candidate Tom Campbell has long been in the sights of some of the most powerful heavy hitters in the conservative world.  The liberal economist entered the GOP Senate race late in the game and rode his name recognition to a commanding early lead among conservatives unaware of his liberal views on abortion, radical Islam, gay marriage, gun rights, and taxation.  Now, Mr. Campbell has come under a hail of criticism from national conservative groups that has caused his lead to evaporate.

American Future Fund - Low-tax Group spent $2,000,000.00 attacking Tom Campbell for his liberal record on taxes.

National Organization for Marriage - Pro-Traditional Marriage Group spent $300,000.00 attacking Tom Campbell for his liberal views on gay marriage.

Susan B. Anthony List - Pro-life Group spent $215,000.00 attacking Tom Campbell for his liberal record on supporting abortion funding.

National Rifle Association - Pro-gun lobby spent $200,000 attacking Tom Campbell for his liberal views on gun rights.

Americans for Tax Reform - Low-tax group attacked Tom Campbell in their blog for neglecting to sign the Pledge Not to Raise Taxes.

GOProud - Gay conservative group produced a web ad attacking Tom Campbell for his ties to radical Islamists (who punish homosexuality by execution).

New polling shows Tom Campbell has fallen to 23% while Carly Fiorina has surged into the lead at 38% with Chuck DeVore coming in at 16%.

However, the same poll shows that Tom Campbell is currently favored to beat Barbara Boxer 45% - 38% while Carly Fiorina is losing to Barbara Boxer 44% - 38%.  Tom Campbell is touting this poll to claim that Carly Fiorina's victory would guarantee defeat in the general election against Barbara Boxer.

With the Campbell Campaign running low on resources, count on Tom Campbell to lean on the newspaper editorial pages, almost all of which have endorsed him, to make his case for him.  The newspapers will no doubt desperately argue to Republican voters that the only way they can stop Barbara Boxer is by nominating a candidate almost as liberal.

Will Republican voters buy the Tom Campbell hype?

Only June 8th will tell.
 
 
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On October 3rd, 2008, George W. Bush signed the Troubled Asset Relief Program into law against dire warnings from conservative Senators like Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, Jeff Sessions of Alabama, and Jim DeMint of South Carolina.  But only 16 Republican Senators opposed the TARP bill and 2 of those (Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Wayne Allard of Colorado) were defeated a few months later.

Jim DeMint viewed this as a sign that the Senate was in desperate need of reinforcements who would be willing to stand up not only to the liberal agenda of the Democrats but also to the moderate agenda of GOP leadership.  To that end, Mr. DeMint has waged an all out war to influence the primaries of the 2010 elections.  The candidates he endorses run a campaign emphasizing that they are the conservative candidate running against the moderate establishment.  Mr. DeMint already has 3 victories and also 1 defeat:

Pennsylvania (victory): Jim DeMint informed then-Republican Senator Arlen Specter to his face that he would be endorsing conservative Pat Toomey.  This threat encouraged Mr. Specter to flee the GOP, only to meet defeat in the Democratic primary.

Florida (victory): Jim DeMint endorsed the formerly low-profile Speaker of the Florida House Marco Rubio, which helped the little known Florida conservative drive Vice Presidential contender Charlie Crist out of the GOP.

Kentucky (victory): Jim DeMint endorsed Rand Paul in direct opposition to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who had endorsed Trey Grayson.

Indiana (defeat): Jim DeMint endorsed Marlin Stutzman, who was defeated in a 3 way race by Dan Coats with John Hostettler shaving votes away from Mr. Stutzman.

In June, Mr. DeMint has three big tests coming up:

Colorado (June 8th): Jim DeMint has endorsed Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, who is running against Republican Jane Norton.  Ken Buck is cutting into Jane Norton's lead in the state.  The problem for Ken Buck is that Susan B. Anthony List has endorsed Jane Norton and, thus far, Sarah Palin has been endorsing whoever SBA List endorses.  A Sarah Palin endorsement would give huge momentum to the Jane Norton candidacy heading into the home stretch.

California (June 8th): Jim DeMint endorsed hard line conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore against moderately conservative Carly Fiorina and liberal Tom Campbell.  However, Susan B. Anthony List and Sarah Palin have endorsed Carly Fiorina, who has experienced a surge in the polls in the last week.  The Fiorina campaign has painted DeVore as a spoiler who may let the liberal Tom Campbell win, which has eroded some of Chuch DeVore's support.

Utah (June 22nd): Jim DeMint has endorsed attorney Mike Lee over businessman Tim Bridgewater in the attempt to replace defeated Republican Senator Bob Bennett.  No polls have come out indicating who has the advantage in the race.

Matt Hoskins, a senior aide to Senator Jim DeMint, was recently asked by Politico how many friends Jim DeMint's newfound political primary muscle had earned him among GOP Senators.  The response of Mr. Hoskins was quite succinct: "DeMint's not using his PAC to win favor with the Senate club.  He's using it to change the club."
 
 
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The GOP has certainly fallen behind in the polls for the Senate race, going from a 9 seat net gain in the post-health care reform polls to a meager 3 seat net gain in the most recent polls.

However, the GOP is certainly primed to be very competitive in the upcoming elections.  If the economy goes south as somechartists are predicting and the electorate blames the Democrats, Republicans could conceivably sweep the competitive seats.

The talk of a possible GOP majority in the Senate next year hinged on the possibility of 10 Democratic seats becoming competitive pick up opportunities.

The problem was that until last week, the GOP was only polling competitively in races to pick up 9 Democratic seats.

However, Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal handed liberal Republican and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon a chance to win a seat for the GOP in Connecticut, demolishing his own double digit lead by lying about whether or not he served in Vietnam.  However, Blumenthal's popularity is immense in Connecticut and most pundits expect his polls to bounce in the heavily Democratic state.

More importantly, Dino Rossi has entered the Senate race in Washington, making incumbent Senator Patty Murray instantly vulnerable as she holds only a 4% edge on the two-time gubernatorial candidate.

However, Dino Rossi has another obstacle to overcome first.  His long-term grandstanding about whether or not he would enter the race required too much patience of Sarah Palin, who has already endorsed Clint Didier.  Expect Clint Didier to paint himself as the Tea Party candidate running against the Establishment Candidate -- a Rand Paul against Trey Grayson scenario.

However, Clint Didier will have a long way to go if he can achieve the kind of name recognition that would allow him to compete with Dino Rossi.  But this will be an interesting primary to watch.
 
 
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Carly Fiorina, Business Executive

Tom Campbell, Economist / Business Educator

Chuck DeVore, Assemblyman / Military Reservist

The California ballot requires that job titles be listed in the ballot box.  And "business executive" has turned into a serious liability with voters while "business educator" and "military reservist" are proving to be big draws.

A smattering of polls has come out indicating that the Sarah Palin endorsement of Carly Fiorina combined with an aggressive television buy has made no significant difference for the Fiorina Campaign.

Carly still has not gained any traction.

The only poll where Carly has any chance is the PPIC poll, which does not include the job title that will be listed on the ballot.  Carly has long boasted an inflated bubble in the PPIC polls.  However, the m4strategies poll includes the job titles and shows a wide open race.

On one thing both polls agree -- Chuck DeVore is surging and has doubled his following.  But most GOP voters still have not heard of Chuck DeVore.

If Chuck DeVore gets sidetracked by battling Carly trying to wrest pre-convinced Sarah Palin voters, Tom Campbell will sail to certain victory bolstered by conservative voters who do not know better.

Chuck DeVore's only path to victory is to ignore Carly Fiorina, go on television or radio and attack Tom Campbell as Arnold Schwarzenegger lite on taxes, gay marriage, taxes, rolling over to bloated unions, taxes, abortion, and taxes.

DeVore can steal Tom Campbell's soft conservative support and seize victory.

With Carly's big move firing blanks, it's between Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore.
 
 
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Much ink has been spilled on the defeat of Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania and the potential runoff defeat of Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas.

The truth is that politics are no longer won or lost in the largest city and the surrounding countryside.  It is a fight of the ever-growing suburbs of the largest city, which now far exceed the size of the city.

Philadelphia makes up 12% of the population of Pennsylvania but the suburbs of Philadelphia  make up 20% of the population of Pennsylvania.  Little Rock makes up 7% of the population of Arkansas but the suburbs of Little Rock make up 13% of the population of the more rural Arkansas.

Arlen Specter had heavy union support in the union state of Pennsylvania.  Blanche Lincoln faced dogged opposition in the right to work state of Arkansas, where unions have been historically weak.

The Unions carried Arlen Specter to decisive victory in Philadelphia but Joe Sestak defeated Mr. Specter in the Philadelphia suburbs.  The Unions in Arkansas failed to gain traction in Little Rock or its suburbs.  Blanche Lincoln carried both the city and its suburbs decisively.

The only reason that Blanche Lincoln failed was because Little Rock is a very rural country, which allowed Joe Sestak to remain competitive by dominating the rest of the state.

But the truth is that if Blanche Lincoln can tighten her grip on the Little Rock suburbs, she will win.  If Bill Halter cuts into her advantage in the Little Rock suburbs, she will lose.
 
 
No one had ever heard about Alabama Land Commissioner until this guy acquired over 600,000 views on Youtube.

No explanation needed.